Stories to Watch: 10/12/11
Looks like our autumn heat wave is finally over. I grilled burger in the drizzle last night, but damn it, I grilled burgers. Now here’s the news…
Herman Cain opens up a strong lead over Mitt Romney in a Public Policy Polling poll, with Rick Perry falling behind — yes, it’s true — Newt Gringrich. Bonus fun; the poll also finds that about 40% of GOP voters are still birthers. The crazy never ends with these people.
A Reuters/Ipsos poll contradicts PPP, with Mittens in the lead, while somebody called Evolving Strategies has Cain, Perry, and Romney leading Obama. Don’t get too excited about any of this; recall that a recent Pew poll showed that more than half can’t even name a GOP candidate off the top of their heads.
Matt Taibbi has some good advice for Occupy Wall Street. My favorite, demanding a round of good old-fashioned trust busting. Too big to fail = too big to exist.
The idea that Republicans are deliberately trying to sabotage the economy is beginning to look like the Democratic Party line.
President Obama’s Jobs Bill is extremely popular, complete with raising taxes on the wealthy.
Chuck Schumer’s not-so-awful plan to take on the GOP in ‘12; run against the Tea Party, who are becoming less popular every day.
More trouble in the UK for Rupert.
Warren Buffet puts his money where his mouth is.
Finally, New Hampshire ponders a December primary. How about we keep these things to the same year as the elections, OK? This is just getting stupid.
The Great State of Russconsin
Welcome to Russconsin. When Sen. Russ Feingold lost to Tea Party frootloop Ron Johnson just months ago, it appeared that the Democratic Party’s moment had faded — both in Wisconsin and nationally. Republicans descended on state houses and Washington in a “wave election,” sweeping out Democrats and flipping blue to red. But then something happened. Republicans either forgot or ignored the fact that polling showed they didn’t so much win these contests. Polling showed Democrats had lost. Republicans were swept in as part of a massive protest vote, not as an endorsement of their ideas.
But those Republicans decided, for one reason or another, to behave as if they’d been given a mandate. Perhaps some believed that if people actually saw GOP ideas in action, they’d come to support them — that now was their time to shine. Maybe others thought that the people really did support their policies, but that the polling was somehow missing that fact. Still others had no interest in legislative careers; elected office being a form of activism, they simply wanted the chance to do as much damage as possible to the hated government, mandate or lack thereof be damned.
For whatever reason, Republicans engaged in overreach almost immediately. The populace voted them in on issues of jobs and the economy; instead, the GOP began to strip people of rights, increase unemployment through cuts and layoffs, and to give away anything that wasn’t nailed down to moneyed interests in the forms of tax cuts, subsidies, and privatization. In Wisconsin, as it did nationwide, this got old fast.
In commenting on the special election in New York’s 26th congressional district earlier this week, Tom Jensen of Public Policy Polling had this to say; “Congressional Republicans are extremely unpopular and voters think they’re doing an even worse job than the Democrats they put out of office six months ago. That was true in NY-26 and that’s true nationally. Last month we found nationally that 43% of voters thought House Republicans were doing a worse job than the Democrats did while in the majority to only 36% who felt they were an improvement. Even in NY-26, which voted 13 points more Republican than the country as a whole in 2008, 38% of voters think the Republicans are doing a worse job than the Democrats to only 34% who think they’re an improvement. You can talk about Jack Davis all you want but the reality is that if voters thought House Republicans were bringing the improvement they hoped for when they went to vote last November Jane Corwin would have won tonight.”
Republican overreach takes its toll. Which brings us back to Russconsin.
PPP also polled the coming recall of Gov. Scott Walker and found shades of Gray Davis. If a recall election were held today, Walker would lose — decisively. Against his general election opponent, Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, Wallker would be defeated 50%-43%. Against Russ Feingold, it would be 52%-42%.
50% support a recall, while 47% don’t. But this is a misleading metric, since a much smaller percentage than fifty is needed to trigger a recall. Those numbers guarantee one.
Also up for polling is the seat held by retiring serial-backbencher Sen. Herb Kohl. In that race, Feingold is again the clear frontrunner. Of all the Democrats mentioned as possible candidates Russ does the best, beating GOP frontrunner and former Governor Tommy Thompson by 10 points.
So, seven months after he was voted out of office, former Sen. Russ Feingold can have his pick of elected offices — he’s the state’s political golden boy. Will it be the Governor’s Mansion in Madison, will it be back to work as the junior Senator from Wisconsin, or will it be something else? The world may not be his oyster, but this state certainly is.
Just months into what was supposed to be the Republican Party’s crowning moment, the whole thing is collapsing around their ears.
Welcome to Russconsin.
News Roundup for 5/10/11
"Oh fer chrissake…"
-Headline of the day-
“Half of Republicans polled still don’t believe Obama was born in USA.”
File this under “never underestimate the bullheaded stupidity of Republican voters.” According to the report, “More than a week after the White House unearthed President Obama’s original, long-form, Hawaii birth certificate, only 48% of Republicans polled said they believe he was born in the United States.
“In a poll conducted by Public Policy Polling from May 5-8 of 610 Americans who usually support Republicans in primaries, 34% said they did not believe Obama was born in the U.S. while 18% said they still aren’t sure.”
So, after the release of the document that birthers said would totally convince them, 52% of GOP voters are either birthers or birther-lite.
And this was the same poll that showed that Donald Trump’s candidacy had “collapsed” following the BC release.
It’s like they blame him for getting the document and (almost) bursting their bubble. (LA Times)
-And here comes the next round of crazy-
Newt Gingrich is going to announce his candidacy. Expect it to look like this:
Click to enbiggen
It’s not so much a question of whether a crazy person will win the GOP primary, as it is a question of which one. (Political Wire)
“Republicans in Texas Senate approve guns on campus.”
Because history shows that really awesome things happen when people bring guns to colleges. (AP)
News Roundup for 3/15/11
I’ve got bad news for you, pal…
-Headline of the day-
"ABC-Washington Post Poll: 64% of Americans Favor Tax Increases to Trim Deficit.”
Americans want to cut, cut, cut. Cut Social Security and Medicare, slash spending on education, slice Planned Parenthood to the bone - cut, cut, cut, cut, cut! And none of this “tax the rich” class warfare stuff either. Americans want to cut!
Except, they don’t. They want some of that commie “tax the rich” class warfare stuff.
A new ABC News/Washington Post poll [pdf] shows that nearly two-thirds of Americans want to increase taxes on the rich. While the poll shows some appetite for spending cuts, it also finds that a “substantial 64 percent say the best way to trim the deficit is with a combination of spending cuts and tax increases, rather than just cutting spending (31 percent, down 5 points from December) or only raising taxes (3 percent).”
And Republicans ain’t doing so well either. 46% say they trust Obama on the recovery more than Republicans, while only 34% hold the opposite opinion. Worse, among those who believe the economy is in recovery, only 6% credit Republicans for it.
And those cuts everyone wants? Where do they come from? While this poll doesn’t address that question, an earlier Ipsos poll did — people want to cut defense spending.
So there you go: tax the rich, pass a peacenik budget, GOP economics suck. Looks like, just a few months after the big Republican win in November, the GOP has managed to turn Americans into a bunch of commies. (Firedoglake)
-Cheddar rebellion update-
Hey, how’s that whole recalling your insane GOP state senators thing going in Wisconsin, you ask?
Very well. How kind of you to inquire. And how is your Aunt Rosamunde? Well, I hope? Good, good.
Anyway, a new Public Policy Polling survey finds that, of the eight Republicans eligible for recall, three would go down today to a generic Democrat. That’s right, voters would rather buy a pig in a poke than reelect Luther Olson, Dan Kapanke, or Randy Hopper. And, while the margin of error isn’t mentioned in the report, two other GOPers only beat an unnamed dem by four points or less. So those are looking pretty darned doable at this point.
As a side note, I propose we start calling Dan Kapanke “Dan Hanky-Kapanke,” since he’s been kicked out of his house and is living in Madison with his mistress now. Even his wife wants to recall him. Seriously, that story can’t help him any.
So, how many seats would Democrats have to take to turn over the senate?
Three. Thank you for asking. You really are most kind today. (Daily Kos)
"Snake dies from silicone poisoning after biting model’s breast during photoshoot."
A lesson for us all. (Daily Mail)
Wisconsin Not With Walker
We’ll have our full poll on the Wisconsin conflict out tomorrow but here’s the most interesting finding: if voters in the state could do it over today they’d support defeated Democratic nominee Tom Barrett over Scott Walker by a a 52-45 margin.
The difference between how folks would vote now and how they voted in November can almost all be attributed to shifts within union households. Voters who are not part of union households have barely shifted at all- they report having voted for Walker by 7 points last fall and they still say they would vote for Walker by a 4 point margin. But in households where there is a union member voters now say they’d go for Barrett by a 31 point margin, up quite a bit from the 14 point advantage they report having given him in November.
It’s actually Republicans, more so than Democrats or independents, whose shifting away from Walker would allow Barrett to win a rematch if there was one today. Only 3% of the Republicans we surveyed said they voted for Barrett last fall but now 10% say they would if they could do it over again. That’s an instance of Republican union voters who might have voted for the GOP based on social issues or something else last fall trending back toward Democrats because they’re putting pocketbook concerns back at the forefront and see their party as at odds with them on those because of what’s happened in the last month…
Nice. Walker’s such a screw up he’s even losing Republicans. I originally compared Walker’s attack on workers as a kamikaze run.
Well, there ya go. It is a kamikaze run. Republicans in the state legislature would be wise to wonder if being Scott “Bonzai!” Walker’s wingman is the smartest decision they ever made.
Who are you with GOP, Walker or Wisconsin?