Dems should hope Sarah Palin carries out her threat to run for Senate.
Public Policy Polling: Alaska should be a top tier pick up opportunity for Senate Republicans next year…but their top choice of a candidate is Sarah Palin. 36% of GOP primary voters in the state say they’d like Palin to be their standard bearer against Mark Begich to 26% for Mead Treadwell, 15% for Dan Sullivan, and 12% for Joe Miller. Palin leads mostly based on her strength with ‘very conservative’ voters where she gets 43% to 20% for Treadwell, but she also leads him 28/25 with moderates.
The problem for Republicans with a Palin candidacy is that even though she is in good standing with the party base, voters overall don’t like her at all. She has a 39/58 favorability rating, including 33/64 with key independent voters. There’s a lot of division about how strong her ties to the state even are anymore- only 47% of voters consider her to still be an Alaskan while 46% don’t, and 37% of voters in the state think it would be more appropriate for her to run for the Senate from Arizona to 41% who say Alaska.
It all adds up to a 52/40 lead for Begich in a hypothetical match up with Palin. He leads by 21 points with independents, 56/35, and takes 20% of the Republican vote. It’s a slight improvement for Palin from February when we found her trailing Begich 54/38, but she’s very much in a hole.
I doubt Palin will run and I doubt that she was ever going to run. The only reason that she said she was thinking about it was because her fifteen minutes of fame had run out and she was desperate for some headlines.
Still, Democrats should hope she does run, just in case. Without Sarah Palin, Republicans look ready to nominate Lieutenant Governor Mead Treadwell, who PPP calls “the best Republican hope.” A race with the Lt. Gov. is much tighter, with a Begich lead of only 44% to Treadwell’s 40%. Oddly enough, that’s actually a worse showing that the polling average for an unnamed generic Republican. Electoral-Vote.com has Begich at 48% and a generic Republican at 47%. So there’s still a bit of good news there.
In any case, I don’t think the nation is in danger of being subjected to a Palin campaign. I doubt she’d ever run for anything again, unless she’s guaranteed a win. In this case, she’s guaranteed a loss.
Is There GOP Life After CPAC?
At our core, Republicans have comfortably remained the Party of Reagan without figuring out what comes next. Ronald Reagan is a Republican hero and role model who was first elected 33 years ago — meaning no one under the age of 51 today was old enough to vote for Reagan when he first ran for President. Our Party knows how to appeal to older voters, but we have lost our way with younger ones. We sound increasingly out of touch.
-Republican National Committee’s “Growth and Opportunity Project” report.
By now, it’s no secret that the GOP is a party with problems. While many reports focus primarily on Republican outreach to Latino or women voters, the fact is that the party has alienated Americans across the board. The list of demographic groups Republicans have either lost by actually attacking them or merely by ignoring them is far, far too long to post. Listing the demographic left to them is just as informative, if much more concise: middle-aged straight, white Evangelical males. The end.
The Republican Party is in deep trouble and everyone knows it. They can’t hope to win the White House without radically reforming. And, since they’re one appointment away from losing the conservative majority on the Supreme Court, that means real trouble for a conservative agenda that relies more and more on judicial activism. They could conceivably lose that SCOTUS majority before the next election. But it gets a lot more likely if they lose the presidency in 2016. On the presidential side, even in normal circumstances, a Democrat winning 2016 puts 2020 in danger, through the advantage given by incumbency alone. Add in unresolved demographic issues and defeating a Democratic incumbent in 2020 would be an exercise in futility. Especially without a Supreme Court willing to hand Republicans Citizens United-type advantages.
Enter the Republican National Committee’s “Growth and Opportunity Project,” a 100-page report recommending major reforms to the Republican Party in advance of the 2016 elections.
“When Republicans lost in November, it was a wake-up call. And in response I initiated the most public and most comprehensive post-election review in the history of any national party,” RNC Chairman Reince Priebus said in prepared remarks in advance of a Monday morning speech at the National Press Club. “As it makes clear, there’s no one reason we lost. Our message was weak; our ground game was insufficient; we weren’t inclusive; we were behind in both data and digital; our primary and debate process needed improvement.”
There’s only one hitch: conservatives, especially those in the base, hate change.
…Many of the reforms proposed by the Growth and Opportunity Project, however, will encounter stiff resistance in corners of the Republican Party and broader conservative movement — because of a deep distrust of the official GOP among the grassroots.
Former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin encapsulated the sentiment during her speech on Saturday before the Conservative Political Action Conference.
“Now is the time to furlough the consultants, and tune out the pollsters, send the focus groups home, and toss the political scripts,” she said, “because if we truly know what we believe, we don’t need professionals to tell us.”
I’m fairly well convinced that Sarah Palin spends her days scrolling through rightwing websites. She doesn’t read the posts there, she reads the comments. Then she leads by following. Sarah Palin has never had an original idea in her life. So when she showed up at CPAC, waving a Big Gulp around like some sort of revolutionary war flag and complaining about consultants and “professionals,” she was delivering not what she believes (I’m just as convinced she believes nothing), but what she knew the audience would applaud. CPAC was her crowd, her area of expertise. These are the people who leave insane comments at Breitbart.com. These are the lunatics Sarah studies and emulates. If there’s one thing wingnuts love, it’s hearing their own beliefs bounced back at them uncritically. It helps them believe the crazy things they say are true. Palin knows it and keeps her fifteen minutes of fame on life support by doing exactly that.
Long story short, if Sarah Palin’s remedy for the GOP blues is “Damn the torpedoes, full steam ahead!” then that’s the base’s opinion as well. And the base is where candidates and voters come from. It’s who decides the primaries. Reince’s little project is DOA unless he can get the talk radio crowd to play along — and you know they won’t. Republicans have spent far too long courting the torches-and-pitchforks crowd. Angry mobs don’t have time for carefully laid out manifestos for the future. Angry mobs are formed to satisfy anger. Reaction is the rule, not planning. Strategy is proactive. Angry mobs are reactive.
The Republican Party has spent far too long choosing their voters to change anything now. Using wedge issue after wedge issue, they split off demographic after demographic until they created the perfect rightwing lunatic. Even if they had a great plan to move forward and win the White House, their perfect voter is the one steering this bus now and he’s going to go where he wants to go.
It was probably a mistake to release this report immediately following CPAC, where rightwing purity was the rule. But the mistake is only one of public relations. The party’s base are just as resistant to change now as they would be later.
And it’s there that the “Growth and Opportunity Project” dies in its cradle.
[photo via Gage Skidmore]
If I did run for office and win, I’d serve out my term. I wouldn’t leave office mid-term.
Sarah Palin, cultural troll.
Former Alaskan governor Sarah Palin has a new Facebook post out, accusing President Obama of lying to the American people, using language deeply entwined with America’s Jim Crow past.
Titled “Obama’s Shuck and Jive Ends With Benghazi Lies,” Palin’s piece lays out how in her mind newly revealed emails concretely prove that the Obama administration has lied about the Sept. 11 attack against a U.S. diplomatic mission in Libya:
We now know that the State Department sent an email to the White House, the Pentagon, the FBI and others in the intelligence community about this Islamist group claiming responsibility. And yet for days afterwards the White House and State Department led everyone to believe that the attack was the result of a spontaneous protest over an obscure YouTube video that had been uploaded months prior. Anywhere from 300 to 400 people from the administration and our intelligence community would have seen that email. Why the lies? Why the cover up? Why the dissembling about the cause of the murder of our ambassador on the anniversary of the worst terrorist attacks on American soil? We deserve answers to this. President Obama’s shuck and jive shtick with these Benghazi lies must end.
TP notes that Palin’s word choice “show an extreme insensitivity to the racial history of the phrase.” It’s not a term you’d ever use in describing a white person and it is deliberately offensive. It’s racist and Palin was trying to be racist.
It’s something she seems to have learned from Ann Coulter. When you’re not getting enough attention, you say something wildly offensive, then play the victim card when people call you out for it. Then Sean Hannity gets you on his show for an interview and — presto! — you’re relevant again. Palin wants you to make her a big, notorious celebrity again, because her fifteen minutes of fame are brain dead and on life support.
The strategy stopped paying off for Coulter — everyone just got tired of her. Sure, she still goes on Hannity and says insanely idiotic things, but no one fucking cares anymore. Her “Am I outraging you yet?” act has gotten tiresome and we’re bored with it.
The same will happen to Sarah Palin. Ignore her and she’ll go away.