New poll: Walker recall battle is a dead heat
Many Washington pundits have declared the battle to recall Scott Walker all but over, and at least one public poll has shown Walker with a five point lead. This has created a problem for labor and Dems, who worry that impressions that the race can’t be won could depress enthusiasm among Dems in a battle that will likely be decided by who turns out to vote.
But make no mistake: Dems and labor still think the race is a dead heat. They are supplying their own polling data to make the case, and to energize the base in the home stretch.
A new poll taken by pollster Celinda Lake — who is a Democrat but is well respected by polling professionals — has found that the battle between Scott Walker and challenger Tom Barrett is now deadlocked, at 49 percent each.
The poll — which will be released later today and was comissioned by the pro-labor Greater Wisconsin Committee’s political fund — also finds that independents are breaking towards Barrett, 49-44.
The poll is an automated one (which means it doesn’t include cell phones) that surveyed 600 likely Wisconsin voters from May 24-28, which means it was in the field until Monday of this week. Its sample: 43 percent Democrats and Dem-leaners; 43 percent Republican and GOP-leaners; and 13 percent non-leaning independents.
Today’s poll is reinforced by another internal survey released last weekby the labor-backed group We Are Wisconsin, which also found a dead heat.
A public poll taken from May 17-22 by Saint Norbert College found Walker ahead 50-45, though that remained in the poll’s margin of error. Union officials questioned its sampling, and a pollster for Barrett argued to Chris Cillizza that some of the public polling had been taken before Barrett mounted his TV ad offensive against Walker.
Also: Keep an eye out for the release this afternoon of another public poll from Marquette Law School, which will be closely scrutinized by both sides.
Today’s poll — like polling released by the other side — should be evaluated as part of the ongoing spin war over the course of the recall campaign, which is designed to help influence the outcome, or at least to prevent public polling from creating premature impressions that the race is over.
Indeed, even neutral Wisconsin political observers believe that public polling of this race may not be predictive, since turnout in a mid-year gubernatorial recall election is impossible to anticipate. What’s more, in this case turnout is expected to be far higher than in the 2010 election that installed Walker in power in the first place.
A new Marquette University poll puts Walker up seven now, but they’ve had problems with oversampling conservatives. Talking Points Memo’s polling average is much closer to this poll — 49.4% Walker to 48.6% Barrett.
Either way, you don’t see Team Walker running to the press with the Marquette poll. Everyone agrees that recall supporters have the superior organizational apparatus, which means that overconfidence can blow a close one for Walker — Walker supporters think he’s a shoe-in, they stay home. Recall supporters think Walker’s a shoe-in and a van comes to their house to take them to the polls.
(via arenaoftheunwell)
Stories to Watch: 5/29/12
I’ll be skipping the roundup this week. Between recall work and other projects, it’ll have to go to the back burner. Also, tomorrow I’m heading up to help my mom at Tornado Central, so probably not much of anything for the day. Thursday, I’m heading out to canvass in the afternoon, so probably not much then, either. Now here’s the news…
David Brooks wrote something stupid again.
Mitt tries to mitigate the damage a Washington scandal can do to his campaign. After a Republican member of the National Labor Relations Board resigned after leaking info to anti-labor folks, Romney scrubs all mention of adviser Peter Schaumber from his website. Why? Because Pete was one of those anti-labor folks being leaked to. It’s not like he should fire the crook or anything, right?
Also in Mittens news; pretty much nothing he says is actually true.
The John Doe investigation of Wisconsin Gov. Scott Blagojevich… I mean Rod Walker… I mean Rodscott Blagojewalker turns to possible bid-rigging. Walker clams up about the whole thing, saying, “I can’t talk about the particulars because I’m following those rules” — meaning the “rules” of a John Doe investigation.
About those rules; ex-prosecutors say Blagojewalker’s shoveling bullshit when he claims he can’t talk about the investigation. “You certainly have a right to go out and defend your own reputation…” says one, “it’s unlikely to me that the district attorney is advising Scott Walker not to say anything.”
Finally, the rightwing blogosphere spent the day working themselves up into a lather over something everyone knows is baloney. Just like every day.
In Wisconsin recall, the right believes they can’t win legit.
One week before Wisconsinites vote on whether or not to recall Gov. Scott Walker (R-WI), a conservative group is engaged in dirty tricks that have shut down the Democratic challenger’s campaign phones.
According to multiple reports, independently verified by ThinkProgress, the following spam text message is being blasted out to many Wisconsin cell phones:
FRM:WI@obamasaliar.com
SUBJ:Union Puppet
MSG:Tom Barrett is a Union Puppet who will give Union Thugs everything they want. Call & ask why 414-271-8050
Of course, the number is Barrett’s campaign HQ. According to the report, “The influx of calls following this spam text message has shut down phones at Barrett’s campaign, just seven days before Election Day and right as get-out-the-vote efforts are ramping up.”
There’s no evidence that Team Walker is involved in any of this, but it gives you an idea of how confident the right is that they can win this — i.e., they aren’t confident at all.
Barrett accuses Walker of signing recall petitions against Kohl and Feingold; Walker question-dodges as usual
Walker dodging questions yet again.
MADISON — Milwaukee Mayor and Democratic candidate for governor Tom Barrett continued to launch attacks at Governor Scott Walker on the campaign trail Memorial Day Weekend.
Sunday, May 27th, Barrett accused Gov. Walker of signing recall petitions in the past, when it has suited him.
“There are just so many questions Gov. Walker refuses to answer,” Barrett said.
“His whole objective is to attack me. He doesn’t have a plan,” Gov. Walker said.
Barrett and Gov. Walker faced off Friday, May 25th in their first debate. Barrett said during the debate that he believes Gov. Walker signed recall petitions against Wisconsin senators Herb Kohl and Russ Feingold back in 1997.
In Racine Sunday, Gov. Walker responded, saying Barrett is getting desperate and is trying to distract voters from Barrett’s record.
In West Allis Sunday morning, Barrett continued to press the issue, pointing out that Gov. Walker is now against recalls based on policy decisions.
“He refuses even to answer questions such as — did he sign recall petitions against Senator Feingold and Senator Kohl? The more questions he refuses to answer, the more people are asking themselves — why is he asking us to trust him when he’s not willing to trust us with the answers to these questions?” Barrett said.
“I don’t believe I did (sign the recall petitions), but I have nothing that strikes my memory from 15 years ago one way or the other. What they’re trying to do is divert attention away from the failed record of the city of Milwaukee. Unemployment is up, violent crime is up, taxes and fees are up and they don’t want to talk about our positive record in the state, which is working,” Gov. Walker said.
h/t: fox6now.com
In the Wisconsin Recall, It’s the GOP Who Are Acting Worried
Embattled Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker knows something that the pundits don’t. While everyone else is looking at Walker’s single-digit lead in the polls (within the margin of error for most and closing, by the way) and declaring Walker the winner of a contest still a week away, King Scotty is hidden away in his castle. The rabble are much closer to storming the gates than the court seers are willing to admit. His grip on power is as fragile as an egg and must be handled very, very gently.
Politico:
With a slim lead in the polls and just a week to go until the June 5 recall election, Scott Walker isn’t taking any chances.
The Wisconsin governor is running under the radar in an attempt to freeze the race where it stands and limit the chances of a momentum-shifting mistake.
His engagements in public venues have tailed off. Retail events have given way to rallies with supporters at campaign offices. Walker’s passive debate performance Friday, where he seemed more comfortable withstanding rhetorical blows from Democrat Tom Barrett than landing many of his own, offered more signs of his play-it-safe homestretch approach. The governor even passed on asking Barrett a direct question — usually a ripe opportunity to place an opponent on defense for a perceived weakness.
Reading that does not bring to mind the word “confidence.”
This is a man who’s spending about 170% of what his opponent is spending on advertising. That’s not figuring in millions in super PAC advertising, which is not a direct contribution to Walker’s campaign. And the best he can do is barely hold his head above water — if he’s even managing to do that. This is a man who has the Koch brothers busing in adoring crowds from out of state to create the illusion of widespread support. Uneasy lies the head that wears the crown.
And that polling that shows Walker clinging on to his slim lead? Well, that may not actually be worth all that much.
Chris Cillizza, Washington Post:
Democrats caution, rightly, not to put too much stock in any of the polling due to the uniqueness of the circumstances; Wisconsin has never had a gubernatorial recall election before and therefore predicting turnout in a poll is even more difficult than it is is a more traditional contest.
Democrats also believe that if they can keep Walker’s margin to low single-digits heading into the vote next Tuesday they can win it on the ground thanks to their superior organizational efforts — much of which is being spearheaded by labor unions. As evidence of their organizational edge, Democrats note that early voting is running higher than expected — a good sign for them, they believe.
While Democrats continue to insist that the race remains a toss-up, Republicans are privately growing more and more confident — insisting that they have shown the incumbent with a solid single-digit lead in internal polling for some time.
Keep in mind that when Republicans tell a journalist something “privately,” it means the opposite — they know it’s going to wind up in print. While Democrats and recall supporters have been happy to release their internal polling, Republicans are less inclined to prove their claims. And by “less inclined,” I mean “not at all inclined.” They’ll tell someone like Cillizza that things look good — and you’ll just have to take their word for that.
And that “organizational edge” has the right terrified. Over at Zombie Breitbart, Mike Flynn tells wingnuts the shocking, horrifying, outrageous truth: early voting is easy, recall supporters are helping early voters cast ballots, canvassers are going door to door, and unions have vans to drive people to the polls. The propaganda arm of the GOP doesn’t have a lot to work with here, but they’re trying to cook up some sort of recall dirty-tricks to be freaked out about. They aren’t very sanguine about this and they don’t want their voters to be either.
If Barrett’s the winner after all the smoke clears, the punditry will declare it a “stunning upset” — which is what they always do when their laziness doesn’t pay off. But recall supporters won’t be surprised at all.
And, considering all the evidence, neither will Walker or the Republicans.
-Wisco
Scott Walker likely to hold his seat in recall election.
Does anyone in a state that isn’t Wisconsin have a sofa for a tiny little woman with a curry addiction that may or may not be me?
Reports of political death have been greatly exaggerated.
Craig Gilbert of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel this week noted the president’s absence in the recall fight, and, only last week, Wisconsin Democrats were begging the Democratic National Committee for help, to no avail. But now, writes Amanda Terkel at the Huffington Post, the Democrats’ internal polling is showing that Walker’s Democratic challenger, former Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, could actually win this thing:
The Wisconsin gubernatorial recall race is now a dead heat as voters have learned more about the corruption probe surrounding Gov. Scott Walker (R), according to a new internal poll for the campaign of Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (D).In a survey of 935 likely recall voters, conducted by the Garin Hart Yang Research Group from May 22 to 24, Walker led Barrett by 49.89 to 48.62 percent. With the poll’s margin of error at plus or minus 3.3 percent, that means the race is essentially tied.Perhaps those numbers have something to do with why, at long last, this week the DNC sent out a nationally distributed fundraising letter on Barrett’s behalf.
Long story short, Politico often falls back on lazy, inside-the-beltway hackery. Who can forget their story about how much the healthcare reform bill weighed — a report thatdidn’t actually tell you what was in the bill?
This thing is so doable. Don’t let bad pundits get you down.
Half of Scott Walker’s Cash Comes From Out-of-State Dark-Money Donors
The latest from Andy Kroll in Wisconsin, where out-of-state campaign donations in the Walker recall election make up a staggeringly high 57% of all donations.
Or “Why I laugh my ass off every time Walker says he ‘stood up to the special interests.’”
(via randomactsofchaos)
